Stay, diversify or leave

I

What happened

On Sunday, October 25, President Lula was re-elected with 51.79% of valid votes. On Monday, the market reacted badly: the US dollar rose 8.21% against the real, its biggest one-day rise since 1999, and the São Paulo stock exchange fell 13.88%. Over the week, the stock exchange lost 18.1%, its biggest weekly fall since 2020.

Since then, families and business owners have been asking us the same question: should I stay, protect myself or leave the country?

The answer does not depend on political preference. It depends on numbers, rules and deadlines. Leaving in a hurry usually costs more than staying. And staying without any planning has a price too.

II

The week in numbers

The market went through one of its worst sessions in decades and ended the week without recovering. Households were already carrying record debt when the election came.

Put simply: government debt now equals 83% of everything the country produces in a year, and it has risen 4.3 points in nine months, driven by interest costs. For 2027, the Senate's Independent Fiscal Institution expects a R$ 86.1 billion shortfall in the public accounts; the government expects a R$ 18.6 billion surplus.

There is good news as well: unemployment fell to 5.3% in the quarter to August. The squeeze comes from expensive credit and strained public finances, not from a lack of jobs.

III

What changes in 2027, whoever is president

Do not plan for the government you fear; plan for the rules that stay. Presidents change every four years, but public debt, taxes and court rulings outlast governments.

Three changes already approved weigh on any decision in 2027:

• The new consumption tax. The CBS, a federal value-added tax replacing PIS and Cofins, will be charged in full from January. The Federal Court of Accounts has calculated its rate at 11.3%, and the Senate has until December to confirm it. For many service providers, the bill will go up.
• The tax on dividends. Since January, anyone receiving more than R$ 50,000 a month in profits from the same company has 10% withheld at source. And those earning more than R$ 600,000 a year now pay a minimum tax.
• The end of the six-day week. The constitutional amendment enacted on October 16 shortens working hours without cutting pay and provides for a five-day week within 60 days.

There is also the international backdrop. Brazil depends on trade with China while facing pressure from the United States: a US measure announced in May hit 29.4% of Brazil's exports to that country. Whoever moves assets abroad also chooses a country, with political risks of its own.

IV

Why so many feel uncertain

Many business owners say they feel the rules change mid-game. That feeling rests on facts that can be checked. It does not justify hasty conclusions, but it belongs in any serious plan.

The picture has two sides. There were fast, broad decisions with immediate effect on people and laws. But institutions also pushed back: a Senate that rejected a Supreme Court nominee and an injunction that was partly revised.

For those who plan, the lesson is about risk management, not ideology.

In practice, court orders can arrive within hours and reach even people who merely had some connection with the person under investigation. Clean records and structures that do not depend on who holds power become more valuable.

V

Three paths: stay, diversify or leave

Most families do not need to leave the country to protect themselves. The right path depends on three questions: where your income is, where your assets are, and where your family wants to live.

VI

Before leaving: get your house in order

Anyone with no pending court matters may leave Brazil whenever they wish: it is a constitutional right. The problem arises when a court order is in force, such as an order to surrender a passport.

In that case, a move becomes flight, and the consequences last for years:

• leaving may justify a request for arrest;
• the passport may be cancelled, and the assets left in Brazil frozen;
• the case does not end: it stands still, waiting for the person to return;
• getting documents at a consulate, settling taxes and selling assets becomes much harder.

Recent cases reveal a less obvious trap: ties to other people. Simple access to a friend's company bank account was enough to draw a presidential candidate into an investigation that was not his. Before any move, check:

• bank powers of attorney and access to accounts of other people's companies;
• stakes in companies, however small, and guarantees given to partners;
• loans to individuals, assets held in other people's names and shared use of aircraft, property or cars;
• tax, labor and court clearance certificates, yours and your companies'.

VII

Moving abroad does not, by itself, change your tax

For Brazil's Federal Revenue Service, anyone who moves without notice still lives in Brazil, and keeps paying tax here on everything they earn, anywhere in the world.

Changing that takes two steps: notifying the departure, by the end of February of the year after the move, and filing a departure return, by the annual income tax deadline. From then on, what remains in Brazil is still taxed here, but under the rules for non-residents:

VIII

Money abroad, the right way

Sending money abroad is legal and simple. Hiding it is no longer possible: Brazil automatically receives information on Brazilians' accounts in dozens of countries, including the United States.

The basic rules fit in four lines:

• always send funds through an authorized bank or broker, with their source identified;
• declare everything on your annual income tax return;
• if you hold US$ 1 million or more abroad on December 31, also report it to the Central Bank;
• pay 15% a year on investment income and on the profits of companies you control abroad.

Today, the advantage of holding assets abroad is not paying less tax. It is diversifying currency and country, organizing succession and protecting assets from local risks.

And no country is neutral. Sanctions, freezes and rule changes happen abroad too. Diversifying only the country, without diversifying currency, bank and jurisdiction, trades one risk for another.

IX

The business: keep, sell or restructure

Shutting a company down in a hurry usually costs more than keeping it well organized. A company that simply stops operating, without being formally closed, leaves its partners exposed: the tax authority can pursue them personally for the company's tax debts.

For those who keep the business, 2027 brings four tasks:

1. Redo the tax numbers before December. A service provider under the presumed-profit regime pays 3.65% in PIS and Cofins today and, in 2027, moves to the full CBS.
2. Adapt schedules and costs to the end of the six-day week. Review employment contracts, hour banks and collective agreements before the change takes effect.
3. Keep the reason for every price increase on file. The law forbids raising prices without just cause. Supplier invoices, exchange-rate moves and taxes are the business owner's defense.
4. Plan profit distributions. Take into account the R$ 50,000-a-month threshold, the annual minimum tax and the 10% withheld from partners who live abroad.

X

The family: inheritance, gifts and education

Brazil's state tax on inheritance and gifts, the ITCMD, is set to rise, and 2026 is the last window under current rules in most states.

A national law passed in January requires every state to charge progressive rates, meaning higher rates for larger estates, up to a ceiling of 8%. Each state still has to pass its own law, and an increase published in 2026 only applies to inheritances and gifts from January 1, 2027. In São Paulo, the rate is still 4%.

For those who will live abroad, five points are worth considering:

• Give during your lifetime while keeping the right to use the assets (usufruct), while current rates still apply.
• Assets abroad: Uruguay and Paraguay do not tax inheritance, but the Brazilian tax may apply if the donor or the heir lives in Brazil.
• Which law applies: as a rule, succession follows the law of the country where the deceased lived. Wills in both countries prevent conflicts.
• The couple's property regime: the prenuptial agreement must also work under the law of the new country.
• Powers of attorney with specific powers to manage and sell what stays in Brazil.

The children's education is part of the plan too. Parents have the right to have their children receive moral and religious education in line with their own convictions, and the family's main tool is the choice of school and its educational project.

XI

Where to go: four destinations compared

There is no best destination, only the right destination for each family. The four countries most sought by Brazilians have very different visa and tax rules.

One point weighs heavily: whether Brazil has a tax treaty with the country, that is, an agreement that prevents the same income from being taxed twice.

Holding another country's visa does not mean you stop paying tax in Brazil.

This applies to all four destinations: without notifying the Federal Revenue Service of your departure, the destination country's tax benefit may be worth nothing.

XII

What never to do

The difference between protecting and hiding is the difference between planning and crime. In times of fear, offers of "asset shielding" multiply, and many cross these lines:

Legitimate planning is planning you can explain, with documents, to any authority. If a structure only works as long as nobody asks, it does not protect: it exposes.

XIII

Timeline: from now to May 2027

The first phase is the most urgent because it has a fixed date: the CBS and the new state inheritance-tax laws change the rules in January.

XIV

Conclusion

This moment calls for calm, not panic. The numbers confirm expensive credit, strained public finances and institutions under tension, and many Brazilians' sense of injustice rests on verifiable facts.

But the right answer is rarely the fastest one. Whoever sells everything in a hurry, leaves the country with pending matters or turns to illegal "shielding" trades an uncertain risk for a certain loss.

Organize before deciding, document before moving, and choose a destination for what it offers.

Economic freedom begins with the freedom to plan safely, in Brazil or abroad.